Bericht zur internationalen Fachkonferenz
von Christian Fröhlich
Executive Summary
Pakistan currently faces a level of instability unprecedented since the Musharraf military regime took over power in 1999. This is highlighted by the loss of governmental control over vast territories in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), increasingly in other parts of the North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) as well, and even in Balochistan. Enormous increases of religiously motivated terrorist attacks all over the country demonstrated that Islamic militancy has become a security threat on a national scale and to a certain degree even to the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal. Moreover, the situation in the Pakistan/Afghanistan border area hampers consolidation in Afghanistan and even poses an immense terrorist threat to Western societies (not at least Germany) within their own borders. When President General Pervez Musharraf imposed the state of emergency on November 3, 2007, the crisis went yet to another level.
The conference brought together well known Pakistani experts with German and international representatives of science, politics and the media. Major concern was to elaborate perspectives from within Pakistan upon what the main sources of growing instability and of lacking reform processes are. In essence the conference highlights the situation in Pakistan in a triangular pattern consisting of: (1) The elitist military hegemony that dominates all aspects of the country under primacy of military security; (2) a weak fringe of progressive civil society which is politically demotivated, demobilized and resignating due to its exclusion from political participation and economic prosperity by the ruling elite; and (3) growing religious conservatism and hardcore Islamic militancy which expands on an impoverished and disenfranchised society and by using the vacuum granted by poor governmental policies, and counting on intended support by official security authorities. At the very same time Islamic militancy is brutally attacking both the progressive civil society and the government.
This analysis serves as framework to discuss options the international community may have on a way out of the permanent crisis. In sum the necessity to alter the tectonic balances of the triangular setting is underscored. For that purpose numerous transitions or transformations will be needed. For instance the entanglement between the military (and other security authorities) and Islamic militancy has to be cut, a civil-military alliance against religious radicalism has to be fostered, and progressive civil society needs to be strengthened and politically mobilized. To succeed in the long run, however, a fundamental systemic transformation will be indispensable: the subordination of the military under a democratic and sovereign civil leadership. In that regard only the international community may have some leverage.
By outlining the main arguments of the conference this paper is designed to contribute to a more in depth public discussion of the situation in Pakistan. By doing so the Heinrich-Böll-Foundation intends to enhance problem awareness within society as well as in German and international policy making.